Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
