A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
